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Fight-week read · T-15d

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos: what the numbers actually say

Every read below comes straight off the tape — finish rates, output per minute, takedown load. No hype, no picks sold to you. Sat, 26 Sept 2026 at Las Vegas, Nevada, USA.

  • 01

    Raul Rosas Jr. brings the heaviest wrestling load on the card at 6.1 takedowns per 15 minutes — a bad night for method picks.

  • 02

    Mehemmedeli Osmanli vs Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu is statistically the tightest bout on the card — the one most likely to wreck a perfect slate.

Bout by bout

Where each fight is won.

Bantamweight
Main event

Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos

12-1 · 22-5 · model: Raoni Barcelos 55% Decision

  • Striking volume

    Raoni Barcelos lands 3.3 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Defence vs volume

    Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Raoni Barcelos projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 2.2 landed per minute against 0.5.

  • Grappling

    Raul Rosas Jr. averages 3.6 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Raoni Barcelos stops 87% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.

Middleweight

Rodolfo Vieira vs Robert Bryczek

11-5 · 18-7 · model: Rodolfo Vieira 69% Decision

  • Striking volume

    Rodolfo Vieira lands 0.6 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Grappling

    Rodolfo Vieira averages 2.5 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Robert Bryczek stops 71% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.

  • Physical edge

    Robert Bryczek carries 6cm more reach. It only matters if he fights at range — the shorter man has to make it ugly early.

Bantamweight

Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura

9-2 · 10-1 · model: Rinya Nakamura 82% Decision

  • Defence vs volume

    Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Rinya Nakamura projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 1.6 landed per minute against 1.

  • Grappling

    Brady Hiestand averages 2.2 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Rinya Nakamura stops 100% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.

  • Physical edge

    Brady Hiestand carries 7cm more reach. It only matters if he fights at range — the shorter man has to make it ugly early.

Bantamweight

Mehemmedeli Osmanli vs Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu

12-1 · 10-3 · model: Mehemmedeli Osmanli 56% Decision

  • Too close to call

    The numbers barely separate these two — 12-1 against 10-3, similar output and similar defence. This is a matchup where the read comes from styles, not stats.

Women's Strawweight

Melissa Amaya vs Valesca Machado

8-0 · 8-3 · model: Valesca Machado 82% Decision

  • Striking volume

    Valesca Machado lands 2.4 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Defence vs volume

    Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Valesca Machado projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 2.4 landed per minute against 0.

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Stats-derived analysis · Not betting advice