Fight-week read · T-0d
Every read below comes straight off the tape — finish rates, output per minute, takedown load. No hype, no picks sold to you. Sat, 29 Aug 2026 at Shanghai Oriental Sports Center.
Umar Nurmagomedov brings the heaviest wrestling load on the card at 4 takedowns per 15 minutes — a bad night for method picks.
Sumudaerji vs Alex Perez is statistically the tightest bout on the card — the one most likely to wreck a perfect slate.
Bout by bout
23-9-1 · 20-1 · model: Umar Nurmagomedov 82% Decision
Grappling
Umar Nurmagomedov averages 3.2 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Song Yadong stops 73% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.
12-3 · 19-5 · model: Denise Gomes 61% Decision
Defence vs volume
Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Yan Xiaonan projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 2.3 landed per minute against 1.8.
Age gap
11 years between them, with Denise Gomes the younger man. Late-round pace is the thing to watch.
22-6 · 26-13 · model: Aoriqileng 55% Decision
Striking volume
Aoriqileng lands 1.9 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.
Defence vs volume
Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Aoriqileng projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 2.1 landed per minute against 1.4.
Grappling
Aoriqileng averages 1.1 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Kai Asakura stops 50% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.
19-7 · 26-10 · model: Sumudaerji 71% Decision
Grappling
Alex Perez averages 1.3 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Sumudaerji stops 73% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.
Physical edge
Sumudaerji carries 18cm more reach. It only matters if he fights at range — the shorter man has to make it ugly early.
3-1 · 5-2
Striking volume
Levi Rodrigues Jr. lands 2.6 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.
Defence vs volume
Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Levi Rodrigues Jr. projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 2.6 landed per minute against 0.
Stats-derived analysis · Not betting advice