UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Model forecast · 82% · Decision

Umar Nurmagomedov at 82% — the model has him ahead on damage taken and win rate against Song Yadong (23-9-1), with the cards the likeliest finish line.

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Where it could go wrong — One of the model's firmest reads on the card at 82% — the upset would be a genuine surprise.

Model forecast · 61% · Decision

Denise Gomes at 61% — the model has him ahead on age and submissions against Yan Xiaonan (19-5), with the cards the likeliest finish line.

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Model forecast · 55% · Decision

Aoriqileng at 55% — the model has him ahead on volume and accuracy against Kai Asakura (22-6), with the cards the likeliest finish line.

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Where it could go wrong — Model confidence is thin here (55%). A live underdog price on Kai Asakura is the value side.

Model forecast · 71% · Decision

Sumudaerji at 71% — the model has him ahead on damage taken and reach against Alex Perez (26-10), with the cards the likeliest finish line.

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