FightCard
← Back to the card

Fight-week read · T-0d

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry: what the numbers actually say

Every read below comes straight off the tape — finish rates, output per minute, takedown load. No hype, no picks sold to you. Sun, 16 Aug 2026 at Xfinity Mobile Arena.

  • 01

    Islam Makhachev brings the heaviest wrestling load on the card at 3.2 takedowns per 15 minutes — a bad night for method picks.

  • 02

    Dustin Stoltzfus vs Mansur Abdul-Malik is statistically the tightest bout on the card — the one most likely to wreck a perfect slate.

Bout by bout

Where each fight is won.

Welterweight
Main event
Title

Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry

29-1 · 17-2 · model: Ian Machado Garry 56% Decision

  • Striking volume

    Ian Machado Garry lands 2 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Defence vs volume

    Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Ian Machado Garry projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 1.7 landed per minute against 1.1.

  • Grappling

    Islam Makhachev averages 2.4 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Ian Machado Garry stops 71% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.

Women's Strawweight
Title

Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson

17-5 · 17-9 · model: Gillian Robertson 59% Decision

  • Striking volume

    Mackenzie Dern lands 0.8 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Grappling

    Gillian Robertson averages 1.5 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Mackenzie Dern stops 40% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.

Lightweight

Jalin Turner vs Kaue Fernandes

16-9 · 11-3 · model: Kaue Fernandes 70% Decision

  • Striking volume

    Jalin Turner lands 1.6 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Physical edge

    Jalin Turner carries 11cm more reach. It only matters if he fights at range — the shorter man has to make it ugly early.

Middleweight

Dustin Stoltzfus vs Mansur Abdul-Malik

17-8 · 9-2-1 · model: Mansur Abdul-Malik 54% Decision

  • Physical edge

    Mansur Abdul-Malik carries 12cm more reach. It only matters if he fights at range — the shorter man has to make it ugly early.

  • Age gap

    6 years between them, with Mansur Abdul-Malik the younger man. Late-round pace is the thing to watch.

Lightweight

Esteban Ribovics vs Edson Barboza

16-3 · 24-15 · model: Esteban Ribovics 79% Decision

  • Striking volume

    Esteban Ribovics lands 3.3 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Defence vs volume

    Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Esteban Ribovics projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 3.3 landed per minute against 1.9.

  • Physical edge

    Edson Barboza carries 16cm more reach. It only matters if he fights at range — the shorter man has to make it ugly early.

Lock your picks

Stats-derived analysis · Not betting advice