UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry

Model forecast · 56% · Decision

Ian Machado Garry at 56% — the model has him ahead on volume and age against Islam Makhachev (28-1), with the cards the likeliest finish line.

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Model forecast · 59% · Decision

Gillian Robertson at 59% — the model has him ahead on damage taken and wrestling against Mackenzie Dern (16-5), with the cards the likeliest finish line.

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Model forecast · 70% · Decision

Kaue Fernandes at 70% — the model has him ahead on damage taken and win rate against Jalin Turner (15-9), with the cards the likeliest finish line.

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Model forecast · 54% · Decision

Mansur Abdul-Malik at 54% — the model has him ahead on age and win rate against Dustin Stoltzfus (16-8), with the cards the likeliest finish line.

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Where it could go wrong — Model confidence is thin here (54%). A live underdog price on Dustin Stoltzfus is the value side.

Model forecast · 79% · Decision

Esteban Ribovics at 79% — the model has him ahead on volume and age against Edson Barboza (24-14), with the cards the likeliest finish line.

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Where it could go wrong — One of the model's firmest reads on the card at 79% — the upset would be a genuine surprise.