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Fight-week read · T-25d

UFC Fight Night: Prochazka vs. Stirling: what the numbers actually say

Every read below comes straight off the tape — finish rates, output per minute, takedown load. No hype, no picks sold to you. Sat, 21 Nov 2026 at Doha, Qatar.

  • 01

    Ikram Aliskerov brings the heaviest wrestling load on the card at 3.8 takedowns per 15 minutes — a bad night for method picks.

  • 02

    Jiri Prochazka vs Navajo Stirling is statistically the tightest bout on the card — the one most likely to wreck a perfect slate.

Bout by bout

Where each fight is won.

Light Heavyweight
Main event

Jiri Prochazka vs Navajo Stirling

32-6-1 · 11-0 · model: Navajo Stirling 82% Decision

  • Striking volume

    Navajo Stirling lands 0.9 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Defence vs volume

    Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Navajo Stirling projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 3.6 landed per minute against 2.4.

  • Age gap

    6 years between them, with Navajo Stirling the younger man. Late-round pace is the thing to watch.

Featherweight

Aljamain Sterling vs Kevin Vallejos

26-5 · 18-1 · model: Kevin Vallejos 57% Decision

  • Striking volume

    Kevin Vallejos lands 1.9 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Defence vs volume

    Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Kevin Vallejos projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 2.5 landed per minute against 1.8.

  • Grappling

    Aljamain Sterling averages 1.9 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Kevin Vallejos stops 84% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.

Lightweight

Dan Hooker vs Brian Ortega

24-14 · 16-5 · model: Dan Hooker 75% Decision

  • Striking volume

    Dan Hooker lands 1 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Physical edge

    Dan Hooker carries 16cm more reach. It only matters if he fights at range — the shorter man has to make it ugly early.

Middleweight

Jared Cannonier vs Ikram Aliskerov

18-10 · 18-2 · model: Ikram Aliskerov 82% Decision

  • Striking volume

    Ikram Aliskerov lands 1.3 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Grappling

    Ikram Aliskerov averages 3 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Jared Cannonier stops 64% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.

  • Age gap

    9 years between them, with Ikram Aliskerov the younger man. Late-round pace is the thing to watch.

Heavyweight

Shamil Gaziev vs Tallison Teixeira

14-3 · 9-2 · model: Tallison Teixeira 82% Decision

  • Striking volume

    Tallison Teixeira lands 1.9 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Defence vs volume

    Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Tallison Teixeira projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 2.7 landed per minute against 1.7.

  • Grappling

    Tallison Teixeira averages 1.3 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Shamil Gaziev stops 83% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.

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Stats-derived analysis · Not betting advice