Fight-week read · T-4d
Every read below comes straight off the tape — finish rates, output per minute, takedown load. No hype, no picks sold to you. Sat, 31 Oct 2026 at Las Vegas, Nevada, USA.
Farman Hasanov brings the heaviest wrestling load on the card at 17 takedowns per 15 minutes — a bad night for method picks.
Ode Osbourne vs Cody Durden is statistically the tightest bout on the card — the one most likely to wreck a perfect slate.
Bout by bout
21-7-1 · 11-1 · model: Tom Nolan 68% Decision
Striking volume
Tom Nolan lands 0.7 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.
Age gap
11 years between them, with Tom Nolan the younger man. Late-round pace is the thing to watch.
20-8 · 12-0 · model: Jacobe Smith 82% Decision
Striking volume
Jacobe Smith lands 2.5 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.
Defence vs volume
Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Jacobe Smith projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 3.2 landed per minute against 2.3.
Grappling
Jacobe Smith averages 7.1 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Randy Brown stops 74% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.
13-9 · 18-11-1 · model: Cody Durden 53% Decision
Grappling
Cody Durden averages 2.9 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Ode Osbourne stops 66% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.
Physical edge
Ode Osbourne carries 15cm more reach. It only matters if he fights at range — the shorter man has to make it ugly early.
17-8 · 11-2 · model: Luana Santos 64% Decision
Striking volume
Yana Santos lands 1.9 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.
Grappling
Luana Santos averages 1.4 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Yana Santos stops 51% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.
Age gap
10 years between them, with Luana Santos the younger man. Late-round pace is the thing to watch.
11-2 · 6-0 · model: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani 71% Decision
Striking volume
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani lands 2.7 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.
Defence vs volume
Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 1.2 landed per minute against 0.6.
Grappling
Farman Hasanov averages 14.1 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani stops 100% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.
Stats-derived analysis · Not betting advice