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Fight-week read · T-0d

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse: what the numbers actually say

Every read below comes straight off the tape — finish rates, output per minute, takedown load. No hype, no picks sold to you. Sat, 5 Sept 2026 at Accor Arena.

  • 01

    Kurtis Campbell brings the heaviest wrestling load on the card at 8.8 takedowns per 15 minutes — a bad night for method picks.

  • 02

    Michael Page vs Nursulton Ruziboev is statistically the tightest bout on the card — the one most likely to wreck a perfect slate.

Bout by bout

Where each fight is won.

Lightweight
Main event

Salahdine Parnasse vs Dan Hooker

23-2 · 24-14 · model: Dan Hooker 80% Decision

  • Striking volume

    Dan Hooker lands 4.8 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Defence vs volume

    Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Dan Hooker projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 4.8 landed per minute against 0.

  • Age gap

    8 years between them, with Salahdine Parnasse the younger man. Late-round pace is the thing to watch.

Lightweight

Axel Sola vs Fares Ziam

12-1-1 · 18-5 · model: Fares Ziam 55% Decision

  • Striking volume

    Axel Sola lands 1.8 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Defence vs volume

    Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Axel Sola projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 1.7 landed per minute against 1.

Middleweight

Michael Page vs Nursulton Ruziboev

25-3 · 37-9-2 · model: Michael Page 66% Decision

  • Grappling

    Nursulton Ruziboev averages 1.2 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Michael Page stops 70% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.

  • Physical edge

    Michael Page carries 8cm more reach. It only matters if he fights at range — the shorter man has to make it ugly early.

  • Age gap

    7 years between them, with Nursulton Ruziboev the younger man. Late-round pace is the thing to watch.

Welterweight

Daniil Donchenko vs Punahele Soriano

15-2 · 13-4 · model: Daniil Donchenko 82% Decision

  • Striking volume

    Daniil Donchenko lands 3.7 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Defence vs volume

    Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Daniil Donchenko projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 4.3 landed per minute against 1.3.

  • Grappling

    Punahele Soriano averages 1.4 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Daniil Donchenko stops 75% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.

Featherweight

Kurtis Campbell vs Trevor Peek

8-1 · 9-3 · model: Kurtis Campbell 82% Decision

  • Striking volume

    Trevor Peek lands 0.9 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Grappling

    Kurtis Campbell averages 7.3 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Trevor Peek stops 52% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.

  • Age gap

    7 years between them, with Kurtis Campbell the younger man. Late-round pace is the thing to watch.

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Stats-derived analysis · Not betting advice