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Fight-week read · T-0d

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld: what the numbers actually say

Every read below comes straight off the tape — finish rates, output per minute, takedown load. No hype, no picks sold to you. Sun, 9 Aug 2026 at Meta APEX.

  • 01

    Quillan Salkilld brings the heaviest wrestling load on the card at 6.9 takedowns per 15 minutes — a bad night for method picks.

  • 02

    Yadier del Valle vs Darren Elkins is statistically the tightest bout on the card — the one most likely to wreck a perfect slate.

Bout by bout

Where each fight is won.

Lightweight
Main event

Mateusz Gamrot vs Quillan Salkilld

26-5 · 13-1 · model: Quillan Salkilld 82% Decision

  • Striking volume

    Quillan Salkilld lands 1.6 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Grappling

    Quillan Salkilld averages 1.8 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Mateusz Gamrot stops 76% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.

  • Physical edge

    Quillan Salkilld carries 13cm more reach. It only matters if he fights at range — the shorter man has to make it ugly early.

Lightweight

Diego Ferreira vs Billy Quarantillo

20-7 · 18-8 · model: Billy Quarantillo 57% Decision

  • Striking volume

    Billy Quarantillo lands 2.2 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Physical edge

    Diego Ferreira carries 10cm more reach. It only matters if he fights at range — the shorter man has to make it ugly early.

Featherweight

Yadier del Valle vs Darren Elkins

11-1 · 29-13 · model: Yadier del Valle 82% Decision

  • Striking volume

    Yadier del Valle lands 0.7 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Grappling

    Darren Elkins averages 1.6 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Yadier del Valle stops 61% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.

  • Age gap

    12 years between them, with Yadier del Valle the younger man. Late-round pace is the thing to watch.

Women's Strawweight

Alexia Thainara vs Amanda Lemos

15-1 · 15-7-1 · model: Alexia Thainara 82% Decision

  • Striking volume

    Alexia Thainara lands 2 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Defence vs volume

    Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Alexia Thainara projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 2.7 landed per minute against 1.3.

  • Grappling

    Alexia Thainara averages 3 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Amanda Lemos stops 63% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.

Welterweight

Ty Miller vs Billy Ray Goff

8-0 · 9-5 · model: Ty Miller 82% Decision

  • Striking volume

    Ty Miller lands 3.1 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Defence vs volume

    Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Ty Miller projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 4.5 landed per minute against 2.2.

  • Grappling

    Billy Ray Goff averages 1.3 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Ty Miller stops 91% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.

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Stats-derived analysis · Not betting advice