Fight-week read · T-11d
Every read below comes straight off the tape — finish rates, output per minute, takedown load. No hype, no picks sold to you. Sat, 7 Nov 2026 at Las Vegas, Nevada, USA.
Tatiana Suarez brings the heaviest wrestling load on the card at 4.5 takedowns per 15 minutes — a bad night for method picks.
Seokhyeon Ko vs Wellington Turman is statistically the tightest bout on the card — the one most likely to wreck a perfect slate.
Bout by bout
20-1 · 19-2 · model: Gabriel Bonfim 54% Decision
Striking volume
Gabriel Bonfim lands 0.7 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.
Grappling
Sean Brady averages 1 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Gabriel Bonfim stops 78% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.
13-1 · 23-4 · model: Tatiana Suarez 75% Decision
Grappling
Tatiana Suarez averages 1.4 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Virna Jandiroba stops 72% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.
18-8 · 10-1 · model: Elijah Smith 69% Decision
Striking volume
Davey Grant lands 1.4 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.
Defence vs volume
Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Davey Grant projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 3 landed per minute against 1.9.
Grappling
Elijah Smith averages 2 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Davey Grant stops 65% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.
13-3 · 18-8 · model: Seokhyeon Ko 77% Decision
Defence vs volume
Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Seokhyeon Ko projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 1.7 landed per minute against 1.2.
Grappling
Seokhyeon Ko averages 1.4 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Wellington Turman stops 42% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.
10-2 · 14-3 · model: Lucas Fernando 75% Decision
Striking volume
Lucas Fernando lands 1 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.
Defence vs volume
Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Lucas Fernando projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 2 landed per minute against 1.3.
Grappling
Lucas Fernando averages 0.9 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Billy Elekana stops 0% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.
Stats-derived analysis · Not betting advice