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Fight-week read · T-0d

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan: what the numbers actually say

Every read below comes straight off the tape — finish rates, output per minute, takedown load. No hype, no picks sold to you. Sat, 10 Oct 2026 at Las Vegas, Nevada, USA.

  • 01

    Otari Tanzilovi brings the heaviest wrestling load on the card at 4.5 takedowns per 15 minutes — a bad night for method picks.

  • 02

    Loopy Godinez vs Ketlen Souza is statistically the tightest bout on the card — the one most likely to wreck a perfect slate.

Bout by bout

Where each fight is won.

Middleweight
Main event

Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan

27-7 · 15-2 · model: Christian Leroy Duncan 72% Decision

  • Striking volume

    Christian Leroy Duncan lands 0.7 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Defence vs volume

    Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Christian Leroy Duncan projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 2.4 landed per minute against 1.7.

  • Grappling

    Brendan Allen averages 1.1 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Christian Leroy Duncan stops 57% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.

Lightweight

Jai Herbert vs Matheus Camilo

14-6-1 · 11-3 · model: Matheus Camilo 67% Decision

  • Striking volume

    Jai Herbert lands 1 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Grappling

    Matheus Camilo averages 3.7 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Jai Herbert stops 66% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.

  • Physical edge

    Jai Herbert carries 21cm more reach. It only matters if he fights at range — the shorter man has to make it ugly early.

Women's Strawweight

Loopy Godinez vs Ketlen Souza

14-6 · 17-6 · model: Loopy Godinez 61% Decision

  • Defence vs volume

    Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Loopy Godinez projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 2.1 landed per minute against 1.6.

  • Grappling

    Loopy Godinez averages 2.5 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Ketlen Souza stops 53% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.

Featherweight

Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka III

25-14 · 18-8-1 · model: Kai Kamaka III 68% Decision

  • Striking volume

    Kai Kamaka III lands 1.6 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Defence vs volume

    Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Kai Kamaka III projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 2.8 landed per minute against 1.8.

  • Physical edge

    Andre Fili carries 13cm more reach. It only matters if he fights at range — the shorter man has to make it ugly early.

Bantamweight

Otari Tanzilovi vs Malcolm Wellmaker

10-2 · 10-2 · model: Otari Tanzilovi 73% Decision

  • Grappling

    Otari Tanzilovi averages 4.5 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Malcolm Wellmaker stops 46% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.

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Stats-derived analysis · Not betting advice