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Fight-week read · T-26d

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Magomedov: what the numbers actually say

Every read below comes straight off the tape — finish rates, output per minute, takedown load. No hype, no picks sold to you. Sat, 5 Dec 2026 at Riyadh, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

  • 01

    Israel Adesanya is the most likely man on this card to end it early — 67% of his wins have come inside the distance.

  • 02

    Yaroslav Amosov brings the heaviest wrestling load on the card at 11.1 takedowns per 15 minutes — a bad night for method picks.

  • 03

    Serghei Spivac vs Mario Pinto is statistically the tightest bout on the card — the one most likely to wreck a perfect slate.

Bout by bout

Where each fight is won.

Middleweight
Main event

Israel Adesanya vs Shara Magomedov

24-4 · 17-1 · model: Shara Magomedov 51% Decision

  • Finishing threat

    Israel Adesanya has finished 67% of his wins against 0% for Shara Magomedov. If this one stays competitive late, the danger is coming from one side of the cage.

  • Striking volume

    Shara Magomedov lands 1.6 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Physical edge

    Israel Adesanya carries 18cm more reach. It only matters if he fights at range — the shorter man has to make it ugly early.

Welterweight

Ian Machado Garry vs Yaroslav Amosov

17-2 · 30-1 · model: Yaroslav Amosov 73% Decision

  • Striking volume

    Ian Machado Garry lands 1.6 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Grappling

    Yaroslav Amosov averages 10.3 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Ian Machado Garry stops 71% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.

Heavyweight

Serghei Spivac vs Mario Pinto

18-6 · 12-0 · model: Mario Pinto 82% Decision

  • Striking volume

    Serghei Spivac lands 0.7 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Grappling

    Serghei Spivac averages 1.4 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Mario Pinto stops 100% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.

Welterweight

Levan Chokheli vs Islam Dulatov

15-3 · 12-1 · model: Levan Chokheli 82% Decision

  • Striking volume

    Levan Chokheli lands 6.9 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Defence vs volume

    Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Levan Chokheli projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 7.8 landed per minute against 0.

  • Grappling

    Islam Dulatov averages 2.2 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Levan Chokheli stops 0% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.

Lightweight

Mairon Santos vs Akbar Abdullaev

18-1 · 14-0 · model: Akbar Abdullaev 82% Decision

  • Striking volume

    Akbar Abdullaev lands 6.1 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Defence vs volume

    Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Akbar Abdullaev projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 3.3 landed per minute against 0.

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Stats-derived analysis · Not betting advice