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Fight-week read · T-0d

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev: what the numbers actually say

Every read below comes straight off the tape — finish rates, output per minute, takedown load. No hype, no picks sold to you. Sat, 24 Oct 2026 at Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

  • 01

    Aaron Pico brings the heaviest wrestling load on the card at 6.5 takedowns per 15 minutes — a bad night for method picks.

  • 02

    Alexander Volkov vs Rizvan Kuniev is statistically the tightest bout on the card — the one most likely to wreck a perfect slate.

Bout by bout

Where each fight is won.

Featherweight
Main event
Title

Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev

28-4 · 19-0 · model: Movsar Evloev 56% Decision

  • Finishing threat

    Alexander Volkanovski has finished 57% of his wins against 42% for Movsar Evloev. If this one stays competitive late, the danger is coming from one side of the cage.

  • Striking volume

    Alexander Volkanovski lands 2.3 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Grappling

    Movsar Evloev averages 2.5 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Alexander Volkanovski stops 71% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.

Bantamweight
Title

Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili

18-6 · 21-5 · model: Petr Yan 69% Decision

  • Finishing threat

    Petr Yan has finished 39% of his wins against 0% for Merab Dvalishvili. If this one stays competitive late, the danger is coming from one side of the cage.

  • Striking volume

    Petr Yan lands 1.3 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Defence vs volume

    Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Petr Yan projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 2.6 landed per minute against 1.9.

  • Grappling

    Merab Dvalishvili averages 4.1 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Petr Yan stops 83% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.

Flyweight

Lone'er Kavanagh vs Ramazan Temirov

10-2 · 20-3 · model: Ramazan Temirov 53% Decision

  • Striking volume

    Ramazan Temirov lands 0.6 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Defence vs volume

    Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Ramazan Temirov projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 2.2 landed per minute against 1.6.

  • Physical edge

    Lone'er Kavanagh carries 10cm more reach. It only matters if he fights at range — the shorter man has to make it ugly early.

Heavyweight

Alexander Volkov vs Rizvan Kuniev

40-11 · 14-3-1 · model: Alexander Volkov 53% Decision

  • Physical edge

    Alexander Volkov carries 10cm more reach. It only matters if he fights at range — the shorter man has to make it ugly early.

Featherweight

Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita

14-5 · 16-2 · model: Aaron Pico 77% Decision

  • Striking volume

    Aaron Pico lands 2.7 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Grappling

    Aaron Pico averages 6.5 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Losene Keita stops 100% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.

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Stats-derived analysis · Not betting advice