Fight-week read · T-22d
Every read below comes straight off the tape — finish rates, output per minute, takedown load. No hype, no picks sold to you. Sat, 3 Oct 2026 at Salt Lake City, Utah, USA.
Ateba Gautier vs Roman Kopylov is statistically the tightest bout on the card — the one most likely to wreck a perfect slate.
Bout by bout
20-5-1 · 10-1 · model: Wang Cong 74% Decision
Striking volume
Wang Cong lands 2 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.
25-7-1 · 11-1 · model: Payton Talbott 82% Decision
Striking volume
Payton Talbott lands 4.1 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.
Defence vs volume
Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Payton Talbott projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 3.4 landed per minute against 1.4.
Grappling
Deiveson Figueiredo averages 0.8 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Payton Talbott stops 77% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.
36-17-1 · 16-3 · model: King Green 55% Decision
Striking volume
Esteban Ribovics lands 0.9 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.
Grappling
King Green averages 1 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Esteban Ribovics stops 66% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.
Age gap
9 years between them, with Esteban Ribovics the younger man. Late-round pace is the thing to watch.
16-5 · 21-4 · model: Khaos Williams 81% Decision
Striking volume
Khaos Williams lands 5 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.
Defence vs volume
Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Khaos Williams projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 5 landed per minute against 0.
11-1 · 15-5 · model: Ateba Gautier 81% Decision
Physical edge
Ateba Gautier carries 15cm more reach. It only matters if he fights at range — the shorter man has to make it ugly early.
Age gap
10 years between them, with Ateba Gautier the younger man. Late-round pace is the thing to watch.
Stats-derived analysis · Not betting advice