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Fight-week read · T-8d

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2: what the numbers actually say

Every read below comes straight off the tape — finish rates, output per minute, takedown load. No hype, no picks sold to you. Sat, 19 Sept 2026 at Los Angeles, California, USA.

  • 01

    Alexandre Pantoja is the most likely man on this card to end it early — 79% of his wins have come inside the distance.

  • 02

    Arman Tsarukyan brings the heaviest wrestling load on the card at 4.4 takedowns per 15 minutes — a bad night for method picks.

  • 03

    Renato Moicano vs Brian Ortega is statistically the tightest bout on the card — the one most likely to wreck a perfect slate.

Bout by bout

Where each fight is won.

Flyweight
Main event
Title

Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja

17-2 · 28-5 · model: Joshua Van 61% Decision

  • Finishing threat

    Alexandre Pantoja has finished 79% of his wins against 0% for Joshua Van. If this one stays competitive late, the danger is coming from one side of the cage.

  • Striking volume

    Joshua Van lands 3.5 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Defence vs volume

    Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Joshua Van projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 3.8 landed per minute against 2.1.

  • Grappling

    Alexandre Pantoja averages 1.3 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Joshua Van stops 75% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.

Lightweight

Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy

22-3 · 14-2 · model: Arman Tsarukyan 68% Decision

  • Finishing threat

    Arman Tsarukyan has finished 59% of his wins against 0% for Mauricio Ruffy. If this one stays competitive late, the danger is coming from one side of the cage.

  • Grappling

    Arman Tsarukyan averages 4.4 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Mauricio Ruffy stops 86% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.

  • Physical edge

    Mauricio Ruffy carries 13cm more reach. It only matters if he fights at range — the shorter man has to make it ugly early.

Featherweight

Patricio Pitbull vs Dooho Choi

37-9 · 17-4-1 · model: Dooho Choi 82% Decision

  • Striking volume

    Dooho Choi lands 2.2 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Defence vs volume

    Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Dooho Choi projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 2.3 landed per minute against 1.2.

  • Physical edge

    Dooho Choi carries 8cm more reach. It only matters if he fights at range — the shorter man has to make it ugly early.

Lightweight

Renato Moicano vs Brian Ortega

21-7-1 · 16-5 · model: Renato Moicano 82% Decision

  • Defence vs volume

    Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Renato Moicano projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 2.1 landed per minute against 1.6.

  • Physical edge

    Renato Moicano carries 8cm more reach. It only matters if he fights at range — the shorter man has to make it ugly early.

Light Heavyweight

Alonzo Menifield vs Iwo Baraniewski

18-6-1 · 9-0 · model: Iwo Baraniewski 70% Decision

  • Striking volume

    Iwo Baraniewski lands 7.5 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Defence vs volume

    Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Iwo Baraniewski projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 5.6 landed per minute against 1.8.

  • Physical edge

    Alonzo Menifield carries 8cm more reach. It only matters if he fights at range — the shorter man has to make it ugly early.

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Stats-derived analysis · Not betting advice