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Fight-week read · T-1d

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado: what the numbers actually say

Every read below comes straight off the tape — finish rates, output per minute, takedown load. No hype, no picks sold to you. Sat, 12 Sept 2026 at Glendale, Arizona, USA.

  • 01

    Curtis Blaydes brings the heaviest wrestling load on the card at 5.1 takedowns per 15 minutes — a bad night for method picks.

  • 02

    Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Curtis Blaydes is statistically the tightest bout on the card — the one most likely to wreck a perfect slate.

Bout by bout

Where each fight is won.

Featherweight
Main event

Jean Silva vs Jose Delgado

17-3 · 12-2 · model: Jose Delgado 68% Decision

  • Striking volume

    Jose Delgado lands 1.3 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Defence vs volume

    Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Jose Delgado projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 2.9 landed per minute against 2.3.

  • Physical edge

    Jose Delgado carries 10cm more reach. It only matters if he fights at range — the shorter man has to make it ugly early.

Flyweight

Brandon Moreno vs Joseph Morales

23-10-2 · 15-2 · model: Joseph Morales 55% Decision

  • Striking volume

    Brandon Moreno lands 1.8 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Defence vs volume

    Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Brandon Moreno projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 1.7 landed per minute against 0.8.

Featherweight

Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki

11-0 · 9-0 · model: Tommy McMillen 78% Decision

  • Striking volume

    Tommy McMillen lands 5.8 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Defence vs volume

    Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Tommy McMillen projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 5.8 landed per minute against 3.2.

Women's Flyweight

Manon Fiorot vs Alexa Grasso

13-2 · 17-5-1 · model: Manon Fiorot 72% Decision

  • Striking volume

    Manon Fiorot lands 1.5 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Defence vs volume

    Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Manon Fiorot projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 2.4 landed per minute against 1.4.

Heavyweight

Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Curtis Blaydes

17-3 · 19-6 · model: Curtis Blaydes 51% Decision

  • Striking volume

    Waldo Cortes Acosta lands 1.2 more significant strikes per minute. On the judges' cards, that gap is usually the difference in a fight nobody finishes.

  • Defence vs volume

    Adjusting each man's output for the other's striking defence, Waldo Cortes Acosta projects the cleaner exchanges — roughly 2.5 landed per minute against 1.9.

  • Grappling

    Curtis Blaydes averages 4.7 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and Waldo Cortes Acosta stops 73% of attempts — the wrestling exchanges are where this fight gets decided.

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Stats-derived analysis · Not betting advice