Before the bell

Temirov’s 62% striking defence, compared with Kavanagh’s 53%, is the single number that could decide a close fight on the scorecards. Temirov wins by using that defence to support his higher output of 4.73 significant strikes landed per minute, while Kavanagh’s path is to turn his 50% accuracy and 10cm reach advantage into cleaner scoring. The model gives Temirov a thin 53% decision edge, though Kavanagh is the value side at an underdog price. In round one, watch whether Kavanagh adjusts by using his reach to keep Temirov from establishing the higher striking pace.