Middleweight
Photo: WEIGHING IN
Brendan Allen
27-7
Christian Leroy Duncan
15-2
Submission · R5 2:46 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan
- Round 5
Unofficial — our read, not the judges' · Too close to split
Duncan outlanded Allen 16-3 in significant strikes, while Allen secured the round’s only takedown and controlled for 1:22. Duncan’s striking edge likely carried more weight on the scorecards, and Allen needed to produce more offense from his control time.
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- Sig. strikes 16
- Attempted 28
- Takedowns 0
- Control 0:00
31211:22 - Round 4
Unofficial — our read, not the judges' · Christian Leroy Duncan 10-9
Christian Leroy Duncan outlanded Brendan Allen 46-17 in significant strikes, with neither fighter recording a takedown or control time. That likely puts round four on Duncan’s scorecard and supports the pre-fight decision lean; Allen needs to close the striking gap or return to the takedowns that produced his earlier control.
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- Round 3
Unofficial — our read, not the judges' · Brendan Allen 10-9
Both fighters landed 6 of 6 significant strikes, but Allen added the round’s only takedown and led control 2:57 to 1:57. That likely shifts the round toward Allen on the scorecards despite Duncan’s pre-fight decision edge, and Duncan needs to prevent Allen from turning takedowns into control time.
Auto-written from the official numbers
- Round 2
Unofficial — our read, not the judges' · Brendan Allen 10-9
Duncan landed 14 of 27 significant strikes to Allen’s 10 of 24, while Allen added a takedown and 2:49 of control. That leaves the round open to Duncan’s striking volume versus Allen’s grappling control, keeping Duncan’s pre-fight decision path intact. Allen needs to close the striking gap while maintaining his takedown and control advantage.
Auto-written from the official numbers
- Round 1
Unofficial — our read, not the judges' · Too close to split
Christian Leroy Duncan led the significant strikes 24-15 and held a slight control edge, 1:54 to 1:31, while Brendan Allen secured the round’s only takedown. Duncan has the stronger numerical case for the round, and Allen needs to close the striking gap or turn his takedowns into more control.
Auto-written from the official numbers
Before the bell
Christian Leroy Duncan has the cleaner striking numbers, landing 4.45 significant strikes per minute at 57% accuracy, while Brendan Allen’s route is his 1.52 takedowns and 1.1 submission attempts per 15 minutes. The deciding number is Duncan’s 2.36 significant strikes absorbed per minute compared with Allen’s 3.78, which supports Duncan winning rounds and the model’s 72% decision forecast. In round one, watch whether Allen can adjust by initiating takedowns against Duncan’s 57% defence before Duncan’s 201cm reach establishes the striking exchanges.
Official statistics via ufcstats · Round reads are AI-assisted · Not betting advice