Before the bell

Pico leads the key volume numbers, landing 6.16 significant strikes per minute to Allen’s 3.52, and the model gives him a 77% chance to win by decision. Pico’s route is sustained striking backed by 6.54 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Allen’s route is his 60% striking defence and 73% takedown defence. The deciding number is Pico’s 6.54 takedowns per 15 minutes because it can shape the scorecards. In round one, watch whether Allen’s 73% takedown defence holds; he needs to narrow the output gap.